4:30 pm: Howie Haber, "The MSSM Higgs Mass Revisited"
Detection methods... getting close to the Fermi signal of the title.
A loose/lose error, but that's more acceptable from a Finn than an American.
Fermi-LAT's data is publicly available, which of course how Weniger found the signal.
A quick detour into the AMS-02 confirmation of the PAMELA positron excess. Some interpretations I have not seen before, which show that
- DM must be leptophilic, well known;
- DM must annihilate to muons (or other dark-sector particles);
- Profile must be cored.
Would be useful to see results with more modern halo profiles, rather than Isothermal/NFW.
Back to the Fermi signal, the double-peak structure increases the significance significantly. The claimed global significance here is 4.5 to 6.5σ; that seems pretty dubious to me.
Now, we can contrast DM vs astrophysical interpretations by looking at other possible sources; in this case, galaxy clusters. The same double-peak structure is observed, at lower statistical significance but above 3σ; and the observed flux correlates with the expectations. I again doubt the claimed significance, given that only a few photons make up the signal. This test also will not discriminate vs systematic problems with the detector that have attracted a lot of attention later.
Now, we can contrast DM vs astrophysical interpretations by looking at other possible sources; in this case, galaxy clusters. The same double-peak structure is observed, at lower statistical significance but above 3σ; and the observed flux correlates with the expectations. I again doubt the claimed significance, given that only a few photons make up the signal. This test also will not discriminate vs systematic problems with the detector that have attracted a lot of attention later.
Looks like that last point will be addressed; in essence, that is a question more for the Fermi collaboration. As theorists outside the group, we have access to the public data but not all the details of the detector response. We should look for consistencies in the data. The double-peak structure is being strongly emphasised here. Of course, the collaboration has been pessimistic, and may well have good reasons.
It is useful to compare, then, with other data. HESS-II will get there soon; this talk is playing the AMS-02 card.
Q: What about trial factors? A: Essentially, no. It seems that the significances are local, which does explain what we saw above. I think this is Dan Hooper, who has different irons in the fire for indirect dark matter signals.
Q: Sharp dips in signal just before/after double-peak structure. Is this relevant? A: No, background is estimated as simple power law and significance taken relative to that.
Another inflation talk. I didn't have enough coffee during the break.
Inflation must end, and then we must create SM degrees of freedom. How? There must be a connection to particle physics somehow.
ΛCDM, simple model with 6 parameters, is still the best description we have. Sure, there's a small tension at for multipoles, but it's not big.
The generic predictions of inflation from all the way back to the 1980s have been stunningly confirmed. There does not seem to be any reason to go beyond single-field inflation in the data beyond the low-multipole anomalies. Nor is there any evidence for dark/hidden radiation. All of this is very useful but does not shed light on the creation of matter and the end of inflation.
In particular, while it is possible to fit the Planck data with an arbitrary inflaton field (for a suitably chosen potential), the production of SM states cannot. For example, a singlet in String theory can and will couple to one of the many, many hidden sectors; and produce too much energy in those sectors on reheating.
The model details are rushed from lack of time, but it all seems to be a bit arbitrary to me. But apparently they can be tested/ruled out both from cosmological and LHC observations.
Q: What about gauge singlets? A: You need to know the full gravity sector. Ooh, disagreement!
Q: Initial condition problem? A: Need quantum gravity to properly answer that question.
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